CONSERVATIVE APPROACH

Find True Value Consistently

Conservative value identification through systematic market inefficiency detection. Steady returns with controlled risk by betting only when the math strongly favors you.

51.9% Win Rate

+3.2% Monthly ROI

156 Validated Trades

<8% Max Drawdown

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The Value Philosophy

True value betting isn't about finding underdogs - it's about identifying when the market has mispriced any fighter, favorite or underdog.

Core Value Principles

⚖️

Mathematical Edge

Every bet must have positive expected value (+EV) based on model confidence vs market odds. No exceptions, no hunches.

🎯

Conservative Thresholds

Minimum 4% edge required before placing any bet. This filters out marginal opportunities and focuses on clear value.

📊

Volume Discipline

Quality over quantity - averaging 3-4 bets per event ensures only the strongest opportunities make the cut.

💎

Market Inefficiencies

Focus on fights where public bias, name value, or recency bias create pricing errors the model can exploit.

🛡️

Risk Management

Conservative Kelly sizing (¼ Kelly) ensures survival through variance while capturing long-term edge.

📈

Steady Growth

Target consistent 3-5% monthly returns rather than home runs. Compound growth creates wealth.

Value Detection Formula

How we calculate true value opportunities in every fight.

The Value Equation

65%

Model Confidence

58%

Implied Odds

+7%

Edge (VALUE!)

Example: Undervalued Favorite

Champion with 73% model confidence priced at -185 (64.9% implied). Despite being favored, still offers value.

Model: 73% Market: 64.9% Odds: -185

Expected Value

+8.1%

Example: Value Underdog

Experienced grappler with 42% model confidence priced at +220 (31.3% implied). Classic market overreaction.

Model: 42% Market: 31.3% Odds: +220

Expected Value

+10.7%

Example: No Value (Pass)

Popular striker with 55% model confidence priced at -130 (56.5% implied). Market efficient, no bet.

Model: 55% Market: 56.5% Odds: -130

Expected Value

-1.5%

Conservative Risk Management

Protection first, profits second. Our approach prioritizes capital preservation.

📏

Quarter Kelly Sizing

We use ¼ of the Kelly Criterion recommendation, dramatically reducing risk while maintaining 75% of the growth rate.

1-3%

Per Bet Risk

🎰

Minimum Edge Requirements

4% minimum edge filters out marginal bets where variance could overwhelm the small advantage.

>4%

Required Edge

📊

Maximum Exposure Limits

Never more than 15% of bankroll at risk across all active bets, protecting against catastrophic events.

<15%

Total Exposure

🔄

Correlation Management

Avoid betting on fighters from the same camp or with training connections to prevent correlated losses.

<25%

Max Correlation

📉

Drawdown Protection

Historical maximum drawdown under 8% proves the conservative approach works through variance.

<8%

Max Drawdown

⏰

Time Diversification

Spread bets across events and time to reduce short-term variance impact on the bankroll.

3-4

Bets Per Event

Consistent Performance

156 validated trades proving the value approach works over time.

Monthly Performance Track Record

Month 1-3

Initial validation phase

+2.8% Average ROI

Month 4-6

Refinement period

+3.5% Average ROI

Month 7-9

Consistent profitability

+3.2% Average ROI

Month 10-12

Proven system

+3.3% Average ROI

Cumulative Performance

+38.4%

12-Month Return

1.52

Sharpe Ratio

91%

Profitable Months

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